The largest 50-state poll of the 2024 cycle indicates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the only alternative to four more years of Donald Trump. This poll surveyed more than 26,000 likely voters across the country and has a margin of error of only 0.6%.
“To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.
By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.
After presenting the detailed findings at a press conference on May 1 in Brooklyn, New York, Kennedy called on President Biden to step aside so that he could provide American voters with their only viable alternative to four more years of Donald Trump.
First, the sample size: Most presidential polls rely on responses from around 2,000 people. That means they have a margin of error of several percentage points.
Second, this is the first poll of the 2024 cycle to measure the winner of each state in order to tally the electoral votes that actually determine who takes the White House.
Why does that matter? Just look at 2016. An accurate national poll would have told you Hillary Clinton was ahead by two points — but what it wouldn’t have told you was that she was behind by 77 electoral votes and therefore would lose.
Only a 50-state poll can tell you that. The poll was fielded between April 13 and April 21 with 26,408 responses. You can explore the full state-by-state breakdown here. You can find more detailed state polling information here.
Download the full no spoiler presentation here
Because RFK Jr was unjustly denied Secret Service protection for so long, his campaign went into the red to provide him physical security. Now we need to retire that debt. Please contribute as much as you can today to help us close this vulnerability and give Bobby peace of mind.
